A Tale of Two Failures: Europe's Authoritarian Shift and Trump's Compromised Peace

Vance's scathing speech in Munich last week was just what the doctor ordered for a continent increasingly sliding towards authoritarianism. Unfortunately, Europe wasn't listening.

Vance began by reminding those present that the principles of liberty and free speech are common values (formerly) shared on both sides of The Atlantic, and shared his worry about Europe's retreat from such values. He told a shocked audience that Europe's greatest threat comes not from China or Russia, but from within.

While Europe has not (yet) mastered China's digital Police State nor the art of the spontaneous defenestration of dissidents, Vance fired off countless examples of State crimes against liberty across Europe, including the imprisonment of Adam Smith-Connor, the Scottish government criminalising private prayer at home and the incarceration of many more - simply for exercising their right to free speech.

This was followed by an admonishment of the German government's arrogant refusal to permit the AfD and other groups from attending the Munich conference, the cancellation of Romanian elections and the damaging impact of uncontrolled mass migration.

At a time when the spectre of war looms over the continent, Vance was apt in comparing the European Union today with the USSR during the Cold War - two organisations barely distinguishable in their disdain for free speech. Vance reminded delegates that the Soviets "𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘯𝘦𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘹𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘳𝘺 𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘭𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘺." He rightfully asked how discussions on defending Europe are to proceed when it is no longer clear what shared values the continent is supposed to be defending. "𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘪𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘧𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘥 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘰𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘰𝘱𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘤𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘨𝘶𝘪𝘥𝘦 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦."

Vance's barnstorming speech was a much needed and impassioned defence of liberty which should have gone down to rapturous applause in a room supposedly packed with people who share the same values.

Instead, once Vance had left the podium, Scholz replied that this timely reminder about the value of free speech and democratic institutions was "not appropriate, especially not among friends and allies." No Olaf, it is entirely appropriate, 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘭𝘺 so among friends and allies.

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Fast forward to this week and the talks in Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration has appeared happy to also treat Putin's Russia as a friend and ally.

While Trump should be applauded for his attempts to end the war as soon as possible, the initial indicators for the chances of a just peace are worrying:

Talks have begun without Kyiv. NATO membership is already off the table and US officials have even intimated the withdrawal of American troops from The Baltics. If this is the art of the deal, offering your opponent everything they want is certainly an interesting bargaining strategy.

A leaked document seen by The Telegraph yesterday reveals plans to force Ukraine into economic serfdom, granting US interests 50% of mining profits- sums that will far outweigh the military and financial assistance that the US has so far provided to Kyiv. Musk has already publically praised the Putin regime for "competent leadership." Not particularly competent on free speech and the rule of law, Elon.

One hopes that the final deal will be more balanced. If Trump's true objective is to force Europe's hand into paying for its own defence, then so far, he is a master strategist. If he achieves peace, under who's terms and for how long? The Trump administration keeps parotting Reagan's "peace through strength." While of course we will have to wait and see what details emerge from Riyadh and subsequent talks, if the final deal looks remotely like what we've seen at the table so far- then that is not strength, but capitulation.

Not that a Ukrainian capitulation to Putin would upset everyone today. It is striking how similar the far-left and the populist right sound on the subject of Ukraine at the moment. Galloway has piped up to let us know that he doesn't consider Zelensky the legitimate president of Ukraine, while a raft of MAGA voices loyally parrot Kremlin propaganda as gospel on a daily basis.

While Ukraine is not entirely blameless (needlessly inflaming tensions by legislating against the use of the Russian language for example), to blame this conflict on Zelensky is at best ignorant, or sympomatic of a deranged belief that the violent enforcement of Putinism is preferable to an independent Ukraine. (Albeit one that naively believes the EU to be a guarantor of liberty.)

While Vance is completely correct about Europe's domestic abandonment of liberty, Trump would do well to remember that the fall of the West does not make the fascists to the East our friends.